IMF’s Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook
The credit crunch and global inflation are exerting strong pressure on exchange rates and borrowing costs in sub-Saharan Africa, against a backdrop of shrinking development aid budgets. The report takes stock of the region's economic situation and outlook.
Unless otherwise indicated, the report is based on data and estimates provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), used for the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The 45 Sub-Saharan African countries studied are classified into three distinct groups: oil exporters, other resource-intensive countries, and non-resource-intensive countries.
The data used conform, as far as possible, to the rules of internationally recognized statistical methods, but the scope of international comparisons might sometimes be limited by certain data gaps.
🔎 Key Takeaways
Despite the $50 billion in financing provided by the IMF between 2020 and 2022, sub-Saharan Africa is facing a shortage of funding in a worrying regional economic context:
For the second year running, economic growth is slowing and is expected to fall to 3.6%.
Inflation exceeds 10% in half of the region’s countries, reducing purchasing power, particularly for low-income households.
The loss in value of regional currencies against the dollar in 2022 has contributed to higher public debts (56% of GDP in 2022), more expensive repayment of debts denominated in this currency (40% of the region’s debt will be external in 2021), and more fragile economies dependent on imports (some of which are invoiced in dollars).
However, the situation is not homogeneous. On the one hand, countries that are not dependent on natural resources could see an upturn in growth, however modest (mainly the countries of the East African Community). On the other hand, countries with significant economic weight may be dragging down the regional average by slowing economic growth (notably South Africa).
To offset the macroeconomic imbalances that are undermining the region, the IMF has identified four priority areas for action:
Strengthening public financial management and rebalancing budgets.
Curbing inflation.
Allowing the natural adjustment of exchange rates while mitigating its adverse effects.
Assuring the protection of basic needs while financing climate action.
💡 To complement the report, three analysis notes explore current issues in sub-Saharan Africa. Firstly, « Geoeconomic Fragmentation » discusses the adverse consequences for the region of an increasingly fragmented world, and calls for a strengthening of countries’ resilience. Then, « Managing Exchange Rate Pressures » describes the factors behind pressures on regional exchange rates, and considers solutions for preserving African economies. Finally, « Closing the Gap » focuses on concessional climate financing.
By continuing your visit to this site, you agree to the use of cookies for audience measurement purposes.